Exploration, not Equilibrium

Can pouches build loyalty that strong? Yes—arguably stronger—because the mouth is the gate here, too. A pouch’s fingerprint is pH (freebase fraction → smoothness/onset), nicotine form, coolant timing, matrix density/moisture (drip/texture), size/pressure under the lip, and the pharmacokinetic curve (ramp, peak, tail). Dwell time (10–30 min) keeps cues overlapped with state change, which is perfect for reinforcement learning. Once a user’s template forms, micro-drifts feel like that dental high spot—and they bounce.

So why does loyalty look weaker today? Early-market noise: too many SKUs, reformulations, inconsistent moisture, flavor churn, and retailers encouraging trial. That’s exploration, not equilibrium.

What the future looks like. As manufacturing variance tightens and planograms consolidate, loyalty will harden fast:

·       Tighter corridors: batch-to-batch sameness becomes the moat (like Coke’s syrup spec + carbonation curve).

·       Sensory branding as a key: can shape/color primes the expected feel; mouth confirms it; habit locks.

·       Higher switching costs: once the internal template is set, “almost right” feels wrong—users revert.