The Risk/Reward Equation in Perception

Humans don’t weigh risks in spreadsheets; we use heuristics. Cigarettes triggered visible negatives (smell, coughing, yellow teeth). RRPs don’t. Even if scientists debate long-term risks, the absence of immediate sensory negatives is enough to re-wire consumer judgment.

This is what Kahneman and Tversky called availability heuristic. If you can’t easily recall or see the risk, your brain treats it as low. Cigarettes made risk visible; pouches render it invisible.