The Risk/Reward Equation in Perception: The Heuristic of Low Visibility

Humans don't weigh risks in spreadsheets; we use heuristics, mental shortcuts. Cigarettes triggered immediate, visible negatives: the smell on clothing, the cough, the yellow teeth. RRPs do not. Even as scientists debate long-term health risks, the absence of immediate, sensory negatives is enough to re-wire consumer judgment. This is what Kahneman and Tversky called the availability heuristic. If a risk is not immediately visible or easily recalled, our brains treat it as low. Cigarettes made the risk visible; pouches render it invisible. The outcome isn't just replacement; it's expansion. The user base is no longer limited to the reckless or the addicted. It becomes open to the cautious, the health-conscious, the modern.