From Substitution to Expansion

Most analysts view RRPs (Reduced-Risk Products) as a replacement market: pouches and vapes swapping one-to-one with cigarettes. But history says otherwise. When a noisy, limited technology becomes noiseless and scalable, adoption doesn’t plateau—it explodes.

• Music: MP3s didn’t just replace vinyl; they created global, on-demand music culture.

• Telecom: Fiber didn’t just replace copper; it enabled the internet, streaming, cloud.

• Payments: Digital wallets didn’t just replace checks; they created cashless ecosystems.

Cigarettes were a noisy channel. RRPs are noiseless. The logic of information theory predicts expansion, not substitution.